Status Quo und Perspektiven der Elektromobilität in Deutschland

Elektromobilität bietet große Potenziale zur Reduktion der verkehrsbedingten Treibhausgasemissionen und Erhöhung der Versorgungssicherheit, bedeutet aber auch Veränderungen in der Automobilbranche. In der Vielzahl der Entwicklungen und Ereignisse gehen häufig der Blick auf die wesentlichen Ergebnisse und die Perspektive für zentrale Entwicklungen verloren. Die vorliegende Studie versucht in diesem Umfeld Orientierung zu bieten und die zentralen Punkte des Absatzmarktes, der politischen Rahmenbedingungen und zukünftiger Nutzer darstellen. Den Ausgangspunkt bilden der aktuelle deutsche PKW-Markt und die Entwicklungen der letzten Jahre. Die nahe Zukunft der Elektromobilität in Deutschland wird mittels der Ankündigung großer Hersteller, politischer Rahmenbedingungen und vorliegenden Ergebnisse zu den möglichen Erstkäufern charakterisiert. Anhand von Trends lassen sich langfristige Entwicklungen skizzieren. Es lässt sich feststellen, dass heute kaum Elektrofahrzeuge in Deutschland zu-gelassen sind, was teilweise daran liegt, dass kaum Fahrzeuge käuflich erwerbbar sind. Mittlerweile haben einige Fahrzeughersteller Elektromobile in Aussicht gestellt, jedoch möchte die Politik einen Kauf bislang nicht direkt subventionieren, um Preisdifferenzen auszugleichen und den Markt anzukurbeln. Stattdessen setzt die Politik auf indirekte und vornehmlich non-monetäre Instrumente. In Hinblick auf eine mögliche Leitanbieterschaft scheint Deutschland insbesondere im Bereich der Elektromotoren gut aufgestellt, bei Leistungselektronik und Fahrzeugen ist man auf Augenhöhe mit zahlreichen weiteren Konkurrenten, während im Batteriebereich vor allem asiatische und nordamerikanische Hersteller den deutschen voraus sind. --Elektromobilität,Transport,Automobilbranche,Automobilwirtschaft

Market diffusion of alternative fuels and powertrains in heavy-duty vehicles: A literature review

With about 22%, the transport sector is one of the largest global emitters of the greenhouse gas CO₂. Long-distance road freight transport accounts for a large and rising share within this sector. For this reason, in February 2019, the European Union agreed to introduce CO₂ emission standards following Canada, China, Japan and the United States. One way to reduce CO₂ emissions from long-distance road freight transport is to use alternative powertrains in trucks — especially heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) because of their high mileage, weight and fuel consumption. Multiple alternative fuels and powertrains (AFPs) have been proposed as potential options to lower CO₂ emissions. However, the current research does not paint a clear picture of the path towards decarbonizing transport that uses AFPs in HDVs. The aim of this literature review is to understand the current state of research on the market diffusion of HDVs with alternative powertrains. We present a summary of market diffusion studies of AFPs in HDVs, including their methods, main findings and policy recommendations. We compare and synthesize the results of these studies to identify strengths and weaknesses in the field, and to propose further options to improve AFP HDV market diffusion modelling. All the studies expect AFPs on a small scale in their reference scenarios under current regulations. In climate protection scenarios, however, AFPs dominate the market, indicating their positive effect on CO₂ reduction. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the emergence of a superior AFP technology for HDVs. The authors of this review recommend more research into policy measures, and that infrastructure development and energy supply should be included in order to obtain a holistic understanding of modelling AFP market diffusion for HDVs

Fast charging stations with stationary batteries: A techno-economic comparison of fast charging along highways and in cities

Fast charging infrastructure is widely acknowledged as necessary for the market success of electric vehicles. However, fast charging requires cost intensive infrastructure and grid connections. Accordingly, the risk of sunk cost is high, although fast charging infrastructure might be profitable in the medium to long term. In addition, the demand for fast charging varies greatly and the maximum power of charging stations may only be needed for a short time period per week. Although the profitability of stationary storages and the demand for fast charging have gained broad attention in literature, the specific question of how and under what circumstances stationary batteries can increase the profitability of fast charging stations has not yet been addressed for all potential applications. Here, we analyze the extent to which stationary storages can increase the profitability of fast charging stations by reduced grid connection costs on the one hand and additional revenues from intraday trading of electricity on the other hand. We compare different battery technologies and distinguish two use cases: fast charging in cities and along highways. Our results indicate that the profitability of a stationary storage installed together with a fast charging station depends on various parameters. While for a city fast charging station, intraday trading might lead to lower cost, this is not the case for highway stations since the heavy use motivated by intraday trading can significantly shorten battery life. Our results underline the importance of second life batteries since low-cost batteries have a significant impact on the system’s profitability

Pathways to Carbon-Free Transport in Germany until 2050

The transport sector has to be widely decarbonized by 2050 to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. This can be performed with different drive trains and energy carriers. This paper explored four pathways to a carbon-free transport sector in Germany in 2050 with foci on electricity, hydrogen, synthetic methane, or liquid synthetic fuels. We used a transport demand model for future vehicle use and a simulation model for the determination of alternative fuel vehicle market shares. We found a large share of electric vehicles in all scenarios, even in the scenarios with a focus on other fuels. In all scenarios, the final energy consumption decreased significantly, most strongly when the focus was on electricity and almost one-third lower in primary energy demand compared with the other scenarios. A further decrease of energy demand is possible with an even faster adoption of electric vehicles, yet fuel cost then has to be even higher or electricity prices lower

A Model for Public Fast Charging Infrastructure Needs

Plug-in electric vehicles can reduce GHG emissions although the low availability of public charging infrastructure combined with short driving ranges prevents potential users from adoption. The rollout and operation, especially of public fast charging infrastructure, is very costly. Therefore, policy makers, car manufacturers and charging infrastructure providers are interested in determining a number of charging stations that is sufficient. Since most studies focus on the placement and not on the determination of the number of charging stations, this paper proposes a model for the quantification of public fast charging points. We first analyze a large database of German driving profiles to obtain the viable share of plug-in electric vehicles in 2030 and determine the corresponding demand for fast charging events. Special focus lies on a general formalism of a queuing system for charging points. This approach allows us to quantify the capacity provided per charging point and the required quantity. Furthermore, we take a closer look on the stochastic occupancy rate of charging points for a certain service level and the distribution of the time users have to wait in the queue. When applying this model to Germany, we find about 15,000 fast charging points with 50 kW necessary in 2030 or ten fast charging point per 1,000 BEVs. When compared with existing charging data from Sweden, this is lower than the currently existing 36 fast charging points per 1,000 BEVs. Furthermore, we compare the models output of charging event distribution over the day with that of the real data and find a qualitatively similar load of the charging network, though with a small shift towards later in the day for the model

Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integration

In order to reduce national and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many countries worldwide have committed themselves to a more sustainable development of their transport sector. Promoting the use of electrical vehicles (EVs) rather than combustion engine cars is one political strategy to achieve a reduction in GHG emissions. To implement targeted and effective promotion measures governments can refer to market diffusion models for EVs. However, in our study we identify that in existing models the consideration of environmental measures is underrepresented. Hence, this paper addresses this gap in current market diffusion models for EVs by particular focusing on environmental effects as additional influencing factors of the market diffusion. Results are drawn for the German car market with a market diffusion simulation until 2050 applying the market diffusion model ALADIN considering the introduction of distinct CO2 tax trajectories. The results are analyzed based on scenarios, where (i) no CO2 tax, (ii) the current governmental plan for a CO2 tax, and (iii) a considerable high CO2 tax is applied. Additional insights when incrementally increasing the CO2 tax are provided. The scenario analysis shows that the market diffusion is highly dependent on the evolution of external factors. A CO2 tax considerably higher than the current governmental plan by 2030 (such as 150€/t, based on its monetary value by 2020) is required to have a meaningful impact on the market diffusion of EVs. Moreover, applying a considerable high CO2 tax leads to a slower growth of BEV and PHEV from 2040 onwards that is compensated by a growth in FCEV vehicles

Can product service systems support electric vehicle adoption?

Plug-in electric vehicles are seen as a promising option to reduce oil dependency, greenhouse gas emissions, particulate matter pollution, nitrogen oxide emissions and noise caused by individual road transportation. But how is it possible to foster diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles? Our research focuses on the question whether e-mobility product service systems (i.e. plug-in electric vehicles, interconnected charging infrastructure as well as charging platform and additional services) are supportive to plug-in electric vehicle adoption in professional environments. Our user oriented techno-economic analysis of costs and benefits is based on empirical data originating from 109 organizational fleets participating in a field trial in south-west Germany with in total 327 plug-in electric vehicles and 181 charging points. The results show that organizations indicate a high willingness to pay for e-mobility product service systems. Organizations encounter non-monetary benefits, which on average overcompensate the current higher total cost of ownership of plug-in electric vehicles compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. However, the willingness to pay for e-mobility charging infrastructure and services alone is currently not sufficient to cover corresponding actual costs. The paper relates the interconnected charging infrastructure solutions under study to the development of the internet of things and smarter cities and draws implications on this development